CEE Energy Outlook

How do national commitments shape the energy transition path in the CEE region?

ORLEN's CEE Energy Outlook examines the region’s energy transition paths and identifies key challenges and opportunities

As a leading energy company operating in Central and Eastern Europe, we decided to aggregate the policy and legislative goals of thirteen countries in the CEE in order to deliver a comprehensive regional Energy Outlook.

Our analysis focused on the following countries:

  • 11 countries that acceded the EU after 2004 that is: Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia (CEE11).
  • Germany and Austria – included in the analysis as they serve as a useful benchmark, since they are more advanced in e.g. EV adoption (DE+AT).

Key Outlook Findings for the 13 countries in the region

Share of total energy supply 2021 Current Plans (2050) Higher Ambition (2050)
Fossil fuels 74% 41% 14%
RES 15% 45% 62%
Nuclear 7% 11% 20%

In our analysis, we refer to two scenarios:

  • Current Plans based on International Energy Agency (IEA) STEPS scenario that “reflects current policy settings, based on a sectoral and country-by-country assessment of the specific policies in place and those announced by governments in the countries analysed”
  • Higher Ambitions based on IEA APS scenario that “assumes that all national and EU climate commitments and longer-term net zero targets1 are met in full and on time.”

There are three approaches to the energy mix in 2050

Despite the distinctive historical and geological circumstances linking the CEE region, not all the countries analysed are embarking on the transition path at the same starting point, and are not pursuing the transition in a technoligically consistent manner. We observe three approaches based on the main technologies of energy decarbonisation:

  • no nuclear energy capacities (Germany, Austria, Baltic States and Croatia),
  • nuclear supporting RES (Poland, Romania, Slovenia),
  • RES supporting nuclear (Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria).

A glimpse into the future

In a constantly changing and challenging landscape, our CEE Energy Outlook can serve as an important tool to better understand where we are today as a region and where we are heading in the energy transition.

In our Outlook we recognise the importance of joint efforts and integration, which we learn in the European Union. This applies to the CEE region, which through close cooperation can succeed in the energy transition while becoming economically stronger and more resilient. We therefore underline the importance of an interconnected region that can work together to bring the goals of a green and secure transition closer to reality.

A tale of two transitions: navigating the green and security shifts in the CEE region

CEE region now finds itself at the crossroads of two transformative forces - the Green Transition and the Secure Transition. Each of these transitions brings unique challenges and opportunities, shaping the region's energy landscape and defining its trajectory for years to come.

Successfully managing these transitions requires a holistic approach that integrates sustainable practices with strategic security considerations. The region’s response to these transitions will not only define its energy future but also position it in the global landscape.