The role of the Baltic Sea as both a mainstay of energy security and a driving force behind Europe’s energy transition has grown dramatically over recent years. This shift has been driven primarily by geopolitical changes but also technology advances, which now enable the development of a secure and stable offshore energy sector. As one of the regional transition leaders, ORLEN, in collaboration with S&P Global, has prepared a report identifying the shared energy interests of Baltic Sea countries. The report also highlights potential areas of cooperation that could help harness the Baltic Sea’s potential in the context of the energy transition.
4.5x
growth potential in regional renewable energy production
Disparities in electricity generation costs (LCOE), ranging between EUR 15 to EUR 30/MWh, present an opportunity for increased trade within the region. The rising share of weather-dependent renewable sources makes power interconnectors crucial to ensuring energy security. Enhanced collaboration among Baltic Sea countries, including the establishment of a regional working group, could support the development of a cost-sharing framework and harmonised permitting processes for new projects.
93 GW
offshore wind capacity potential in the Baltic Sea
With over 60 offshore wind projects at various stages of development, the Baltic Sea presents a major opportunity for reducing reliance on hydrocarbons in the regional energy mix. Cross-border cooperation in marine spatial planning could play a decisive role in unlocking the Baltic Sea’s offshore wind potential, ensuring a significant increase in installed capacity.
300,000 tonnes
additional demand for renewable hydrogen
Projections suggest that the region will face a shortage of renewable hydrogen, making it struggle to meet the EU’s RED III targets by 2030. A possible solution could be a regional hydrogen auction, leveraging a regional supply pool under the EU H2Bank model.
EUR 15/tonne
potentially lower CO₂ transport cost compared to the North Sea
Carbon storage beneath the Baltic Sea and its transport could be more cost-effective than similar projects in the North Sea. Joint geological mapping of the Baltic seabed and regulatory transparency facilitating investment projects in the region could pave the way for CO₂ storage under the Baltic Sea.
64pp
decline in Russian gas imports
The share of Russian gas in the region’s energy imports fell from 68% in 2018 to just 4% in 2023. LNG imports and the Baltic Pipe have played a key role in replacing Russian gas, but the focus is now shifting towards expansion of the gas infrastructure. Expanded gas interconnectors could support LNG regasification and optimise the utilisation of regional pipeline capacity.